Windy surf on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico.
High pressure is taking the spotlight behind the last winter storm and setting up a very decent fetch. The good news is that this setup will make some big waves. The bad news is that it will also bring a lot of wind and be a very short period in relation to the swell height. Four feet at 10 seconds is generally pretty fun. 10 feet at 10 seconds can be a bit more taxing on the paddle out. If the winds stay a little more easterly here in Rincon, the tucked away spots could still be pretty fun through this next major swell event. I anticipate the surf to start showing up by tomorrow and max out in size on Sunday or Monday. We will probably see weak leftovers until late in the week where we could see a NW pulse start to fill in. The models have been picking up on the NW swell next weekend consistently for a while. Granted I’m still stoked on the last NW swell that showed up so I’m inclined to be overly hopeful at the prospect of another NW swell. Let’s see what happens. Stay safe and have fun!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.