Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Jan 21, 2019

Big NW swell on the way for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Get ready folks, we have a massive cold-front setting up a solid NW swell with a possible N swell follow through. The Bahamas buoy has been pinging the first chunk of swell all day with swell around 8ft at 12 seconds from the NW. Normally this means that we should see the arrival within 24 to 36 hours from the first ping. We could see some background swell as early as 6am but nothing sizeable until 6pm on Tuesday. Wednesday is looking like it will max out as the day goes on with sets over double overhead. Remember swell height always makes a bigger face height when it breaks (especially in medium to long period swells). DO NOT OVERESTIMATE YOUR ABILITIES! Have respect for the ocean. Inspect your leash and leash plug on your board. Don’t paddle out if you wouldn’t be able to make it back to shore if your board and/or leash broke from a really bad wipe-out, or if you ate it over the falls really hard and had the wind knocked out of you. Thursday will also be large. Though the size will drop a little bit, be cautious of clean-up sets. This swell event will NOT be a good swell for paddling out on a giant inflatable hot-dog unless you’re Jamie O’Brian. Saturday will have smaller leftovers in the head high range, but another pulse may fill in over the weekend with continued swell into next week a couple of feet overhead. PLEASE BE SAFE!

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.