Rincon, Puerto Rico about to see more fun surf!
All of the models are calling for small conditions, but with the weather in its current setup I don’t see how it’s possible for Rincon to stay flat. We should have fun surf for several days. This a beautiful setup. If that frontal boundary pushes out a little further tomorrow we could have a couple of days of south winds and NW swell. This will make several exposed spots glassy for the majority of the day with chest high surf and bigger sets. NOAA’s marine weather forecasts are calling for gale force winds on the backside of the front so the swell should linger on for 3-4 days once the fetch sets up (possibly more if the storm deepens and amplifies in the North Atlantic). The arrival of this next pulse should be Wednesday morning. Any swell showing up tomorrow on the Bahamas buoy will confirm this. Should we see a delay, I would still expect to see swell from Thursday through Sunday in the chest to head high range with light trade winds. We have all the ingredients for a fun batch of swell – let’s see if it materializes.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.