Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Feb 4, 2019

Looks like another NW swell event for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Looks like another NW swell for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Again we have a low pulling off the Carolinas with gale force winds forecast to form right in our swell window at a lower lattitude. We should get fun waves from this weather system. If the storm can bomb out or drop drastically in pressure we could be looking a very major swell. Currently the models are not trending on that happening, but a surfer can dream right? Most likely we will have another replay of last week with several days of chest to head high surf and mild winds. The winds should clock south a day or two before the main bulk of swell so look for some early swell possibly coming in Wednesday night at the more exposed breaks. The main arrival is most likely Thursday or Friday though. Expect conditions to fade out over the weekend.

Long Range Surf Forecast for the Month of February in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Historically, February is the most consistent months for surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico. This February is looking like it will continue to follow the historical pattern. I anticipate more minor swells and maybe one or two big pulses. There seems to be a steady flow in the weather and a more balanced pattern tends to lead to consistent but not huge surf. It’s when the energy seems to get pent up that we see violent storms and bigger swells form. I also can’t help but to notice that we continually have open tropical waves passing through the Mid-Atlantic and Caribbean. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one team up with a sub-tropical low and make a decent swell North of Puerto Rico as has happened previously in March the past couple of years.

Today

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.