Small surf for Rincon and big surf for the rest of the Atlantic.
We have been having a very long run of small surf in Rincon. This February has been great for surf lessons here in Rincon and boring for everyone else. Every time I look at a satellite loop or wind model it looks like the main image above – a giant Armageddon low pressure with high winds dumping heaps of swell at the other side of the Atlantic. I’m sick of it. Spain, Portugal, Morocco, and just about every other place on the other side of the Atlantic has just been all time and will continue to see endless long period swell. Something has to give. We can’t go a whole season with just background swell. Sooner or later one of these storms has to point some swell at us. We’ll have some swell over the weekend starting Friday, but it will probably be on the mild side. Look for chest to head high surf with bigger sets. The wind is forecast to be hard out of the east so look for wind protection. Hopefully we’ll see a major weather pattern change and get some swell pointed directly at us soon!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.