We finally have some surf on the way!
This is going to be a decent swell event. The initial push should be fun but not huge. The weather is setting up for multiple pulses from different angles after the initial push. I like the lower latitude of the storm and the strong high pressure to fill in behind it. We should get a decent fetch from behind this storm to keep the waves coming for a few days after it passes.
Thursday should be the day we start to see the NW swell fill in. We should start out around chest high in the morning and work our way to a couple feet overhead by the afternoon.
Friday the northerly swell dominates and we should see some 2ft overhead surf and bigger sets with offshore winds everywhere in the early part of the day. Afternoon seabreeze will probably texture the late day conditions.
Saturday is looking like it will be more of a chest high day with the wind still not very strong.
Sunday will probably start off chest high but shouldn’t fade out any more than that, since the new swell may start to show up as the day goes on.
Monday should start with the new NNE pulse already on the beach in the head high range.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.