1.21 Gigawatt Swell Shows Up in Rincon!
Ok so the models and myself highly underestimated the the initial push of this swell. Now I have conflicting views on this weekend. The models are calling for every other day this weekend to be considerably smaller than today; however, based on what has been hitting the outside buoys all day today and most of yesterday, I think we’ll still see some 2-4ft overhead surf tomorrow (Friday), head high on Saturday, and head high plus on Sunday, building throughout the day.
My take on the next swell for next week.
The swell height and period are looking decent. I think it will be big but not too much bigger than what we’ve seen today (Thursday) due to the NE angle of the predicted swell. If the swell ends up having more north in it we could easily see some triple overhead surf. The swell will linger around in the ocean, but the angle switches more NE to ENE as the week goes on so spots further north on the island should continue to see big conditions, but Rincon will fade each day the angle goes more easterly.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.