Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Jan 5, 2017

Cold-front bombs out giving surf to Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Now we’re talking! This storm is a beast and it rapidly intensified right in our swell window. Sorry for all the folks in the NE United States who are going to get rocked by this massive storm. I hope you’re alright when this is all done. Bombogenesis is actually a real thing and is associated with some of the biggest swells to hit PR and unfortunately the most winter destruction in the northern latitudes at the same time. This storm definitely “bombed out” big time and will give us the first big swell of 2018. Expect some perfect Tres Palmas this weekend and just about every other spot performing as it does in a classic winter swell. Due to what I’m seeing on the Bahamas buoys, I’m inclined to think we’ll see the swell show up a bit bigger than what the automated surf forecast systems are anticipating. We’re definitely going to see double overhead conditions and possibly bigger. DO NOT PADDLE OUT IF YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT YOU’RE DOING IN BIG WAVES! I really don’t want anyone to die surfing this storm. Please do not overestimate your abilities or underestimate the power of the ocean. As surfers we are always at the mercy of the elements. We are only in control of our own actions and nothing else. If the ocean wants to throw a 20ft clean-up set at you, it will and there’s nothing you can do to stop it. You can only control where you are when that happens. For many, sitting on the beach watching will be the safest place to be when that happens.

More reasonable surf should be on tap for the coming week and offer plenty of “normal” waves that will still pack a punch. As of right now we’ve already had a couple of days of surf from this weather system and it looks like another week of rideable waves will follow. Plenty of opportunities at several spots should be available in the coming week so there’s no need to crowd one break. Expect a little bit of size to drop off each day, but if the right pattern sticks, we could see another decent long period swell by the end of next week to keep everyone surfing through the first half of January. I guess after a very quiet December surf-wise, the earth is trying to catch back up. Be safe everyone! Have fun!

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.