Small surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.
If only that massive, gigantic, insanely big and powerful winter storm was ANYWHERE in the Atlantic other than its current location we would have been surfing perfect overhead waves for a week already and for another week to come. Unfortunately it’s shooting all swell at Europe and Canada is blocking anything from heading our way. Instead we have tiny, little, baby storms to get a little background pulse from and super strong trade winds from high pressure. This is a terrible pattern and I don’t know when it will end. Appreciate any swell we get however we get it because at the end of the day, we’re at the mercy of natural phenomenon until wave parks fill the planet. That being said, some possibilities for smaller surf still exist in the coming days. From tomorrow through the weekend we should see some waist high waves with chest high sets at the right switch of the tides. The winds will continue to howl relentlessly so expect afternoons to be chopfest. The swell won’t be strong enough to reach the protected spots so don’t count on afternoon sessions at tucked away beaches. The pattern isn’t looking to change next week, but it should. This is a long time to go without any real swell at this time of year. We’ll have to wait and see.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.