Surf in Rincon blocked by high pressure.
That is a giant mess up there. Winter wants to do it’s thing but the Atlantic is currently being bullied by strong high pressure. This is diverting most of the winds and resulting swell away from the Caribbean and pushing it more towards Europe. December is officially the windiest month of the year for Puerto Rico but we normally see more northerly fetches set up. The high pressure isn’t allowing for the development of northerly fetch on the backside of the cold-fronts currently pulling off the states. As a result we will continue to only see marginal background swell through the forecast period. After a week more of this pattern we will be due for a change so I wouldn’t be surprised to see next week go off. As for this week, we should continue to see a small pulse in the waist to chest high range through tomorrow before the rest of the week goes small to flat. Surf lessons will have the time of their lives this week since it will be small and mellow. Saturday or Sunday might see a little bump up in the surf so it’s worth checking back to see what will happen.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.