Plenty of surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico!
The weather pattern is set to stay active through the weekend and into next week. We should see the swell start to pick up considerably by tomorrow and last through the weekend. Look for solid head high surf and bigger sets to stick around for the next 2-3 days. As the swell fades out, the leftovers down our way may be a bit on the weak side. However, the surf should maintain more power up on the north side of the island where the swell will be more of a direct hit. Early models are also picking up on a decent cold-front setup mid-week next week which would give us another week of swell. I hope it materializes because there is a possibility to get some NW swell at the start of the swell event with dead winds. This would make just about every spot in our corner of the island go off!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.