Change in weather hints at possible tropical surf in the future.
I’ve said from the beginning of this year’s hurricane season that all it would take for tropical systems to fire up is low wind shear in the hot zones. There has never been a shortage of open tropical waves or surface lows. Sure enough, as you start to see more green blobs show up in the weather map above we have some possible tropical formation. The most likely tropical system to develop is in the Gulf of Mexico and won’t do much for us, but keep an eye on the surface low that is off the eastern US coast. If that little window of green closes up, there will be no tropical formation. However, if the low shear remains there’s the possibility for the surface low to gain tropical characteristics in our swell window. Also note the green area around 10N and 50W. Some strong tropical waves will be headed for that area over the course of the next couple of weeks. If the shear stays low we could start to see the tropics become more active.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.