Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – June 13, 2020

Active Weather in June – Small Surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

As you can see in the weather map above, the Atlantic still has a lot of activity going on. As a result some small scale surf should persist for the next couple of days. What happens beyond that has a lot of uncertainty. Most weather systems are beating expectations as far as surf is concerned. Historically we don’t get much surf action in June and we’ve seen a decent run of swell a couple weekends in a row. Will the pattern continue? I sure hope so! Will we know for sure? Not a chance. Unfortunately I would put a 3 day max on any reliable forecast right now. Tomorrow we should see the peak of this current small pulse with hopefully some more waist to chest high surf at exposed breaks in the morning. I anticipate that the swell will fade through the day and be very small on Monday. Tuesday will most likely go back to flat.

Unreliable speculation beyond 3 days:

I will be watching that open low out in the middle of the North Atlantic carefully. Any development of tropical characteristics will change the surf forecast drastically. Is it expected to develop tropical characteristics? No. It’s not. But it also wasn’t forecast to linger on for as long as it has. Persistent blobs of low pressure are often a point of interest this time of year since there is plenty of heat in the ocean right now. We also have some tropical waves that will be passing from Africa through the Caribbean over the next week as well. Those will be worth watching as well.

Get ready for Hurricane Season 2020!

The ocean is hot, the earth is angry. The second the wind shear starts dropping we’re going to see a lot of storms form this season. Make sure you’re prepared! Things could get complicated dealing with a storm along with the exiting increase of earthquakes and the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.