Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – June 20, 2019

More Summer Weather – No Major Surf in Rincon

Granted, the earth is not completely quiet in regards to the current weather over the North Atlantic. However, there doesn’t seem to be enough going on to make any major surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico. This is common for June. The bright side is that there is at least more small scale surf lesson days on the horizon on the low tides and that some parts of the island that are super exposed will continue to see small surf. We’re not completely flat as a lake everywhere on the island – not just yet anyways.

Tropical Analysis for Surf

Currently, the only low wind shear areas don’t have hot enough water to see any significant formation in the near term forecast in the North Atlantic. We continue to see several open waves traverse the Atlantic and the Caribbean. In addition the ITCZ is lit up (common this time of year). However, sea surface temps still aren’t unusually high and where they are the highest wind shear is far to strong to allow for developement.

My take-home from a quick look at the current weather is that we won’t see any Tropical Cyclone formation for another week or so. However, any change in the wind shear situation would merit special attention. Because we have so many open waves this year, it is very likely that one will be able to grow into something more significant if the wind shear backs down in any hot zone of the ocean. The heat is very intense, humid, and overbearing right now here in Rincon. As summer progesses, I can see plenty of Fuel in the form of heat content to feed some of these potential tropical systems.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.