Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – June 14, 2019

Nonstop Tropical Waves – Small Surf Possible in Rincon.

We have a lot of open waves coming off of Africa already. Though conditions over the Caribbean and Atlantic are not currently favorable for anything major to happen, some possibilities for small surf will be created over the next 7 to 10 days. The southeast corner of the island is normally the summer spot to be and this coming week will be no exception. The passing of open waves generally gives exposed breaks a little waist to chest high wave. Some spots on the north side of the island could see surf of the same size as well. The waves are all moving from East to West so Rincon will be a bit more tucked away. However, having an open wave sit right on top of us has generally stirred up the ocean enough to see some waist high lines in Rincon in the past. On a low to incoming tide we might see some fun surf lessons waves over the weekend and into early next week.

The ocean won’t always be unfavorable for Tropical Cyclone development.

Tropical waves have been numerous this year since early spring. Just because our current weather setup is unfavorable for their development at the moment doesn’t mean we’re in the clear. Eventually, something will change. It is a good time to make sure you have all of your preparations for this year’s hurricane season now instead of when we get a named storm with the island in the 5 day cone. For now, I’m just seeing all these open tropical waves as surfing opportunities.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.