Winter in May – More Surf on the Way!
This is a special treat! You know that part of the Atlantic that was off limits to cold-fronts pretty much the entire season giving us the worst season ever? Well, I guess it’s finally open for business again – in May. We have a cold-front swell in May (and possibly more in June). If you look at the weather map above, that is normally what you see in November or March. We have at the end of May. We have a decent front with a favorable fetch on the back side that will give us a week long swell event starting later on today. Expect some waist to chest surf with bigger sets over the next three days. On Tuesday, we should see some surf in the 2ft overhead range with some bigger sets possible. The wind will be super light this entire swell event. Unfortunately, when there is no dominant wind we tend to see onshore flow at all beaches in the afternoons, so the mornings will probably offer the cleanest conditions.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.