More weak swells and smaller surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.
We had a fun one and a half day swell event here in Rincon, but now it’s time to go back to surf lessons mania until late next weekend. The good news is that there should be a fun little pulse for the Corona contest next weekend. Expect chest to head high surf with some sets a foot or two overhead at the peak of the swell during the contest. The bad news is that nothing is forecast to linger on or show up between then and now. This is great news for the learners and surf lessons. This is not the best news for everyone else. If you’re going to be in Rincon over the next week expect heavy traffic and extended waits for everything and anything. There is a lot of people in Rincon right now and access to the contest area is already being restricted resulting in heavy traffic on the 413 near the usual beaches on the west side of Rincon. The contest isn’t until next weekend. Drive safe, play safe, and be nice to eachother. I’ll try to update again if I see any positive changes in the weather or forecast.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.