Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Mar 14, 2016

Doing the happy dance - surf is on the way!

Long Period Swell on the way! Get Ready to Surf!

I held off on updating this forecast as long as could. Why? Because I didn’t want to get everyone’s hopes up only to be let down. That possibility still exists, but I can’t hold this in any longer! We’re looking at a solid run of long period NE swell with light winds. We’re talking a possible five straight days of perfection just about everywhere. When the possibility exists for conditions to get this good, the disappointment can be devastating if things don’t play out as anticipated. So take the following with the knowledge that nothing concrete is on the buoys just yet. Under the current forecast, the north side of the island should be a couple feet overhead or bigger with looooong lines and barrels at the most exposed breaks. Other spots up there should be going off as well. Rincon will be smaller, but still fun. I’m expecting around head high with some bigger sets and really long lines. Just about everywhere should be glassy in the morning, and Rincon should stay glassy most of the day at west facing spots.

Here’s how i see it playing out:

Tuesday: Small to flat in Rincon with some longboard and learner waves. Outside buoys should see long period swell as confirmation for things to come.
Wednesday: Still small here in Rincon – maybe waist high.
Thursday: Swell finally builds through the day to chest to head high and super glassy conditions.
Friday: Head high with bigger sets and a bit of a wait between sets and super glassy conditions.
Saturday: Perfect waves for the Volcom Contest! Head high with bigger sets and super glassy conditions. Random lulls off and on.
Sunday: Chest to head high and glassy.
Monday: Waist to chest high and glassy.

Today

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.