Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Mar 20, 2016

Weaker weather means smaller waves for surfing Puerto Rico.

After an amazing past few days, the surf in Rincon will start to quiet down. We will stay small to flat for most of the week with the exception of Wednesday/Thursday. This will be due to the weaker weather systems pulling off the states and less fetch. If things amplify and organize a little bit more we could be looking at another big swell. However, none of the models are picking up on this scenario and most likely we will stay small and have more wind. Wind chop should continue with some size up on the north side of Puerto Rico. I’ll update again after another couple of model runs. The possible conditions for Wednesday/Thursday should become more clear soon.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.