Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Mar 27, 2017

Plenty more surf on the way for Rincon!

Wow what a busy weather map. That low that pulled up from the south was the only variable not picked up on by any of the model runs when I wrote the previous forecast. That whole setup was very rare for this time of year, but that low has been the gift that keeps on giving. The past 3 days have felt like a hurricane swell. Cranking NW swell and hard SW winds is always fun. There’s so much going on in the Atlantic right now that trying distinguish exactly how it will all contribute to the surf we see on the beach piece by piece is somewhat pointless. All you need to know is that the surf will continue to rage for the next 7 days. We shouldn’t get below waist to chest high at the main breaks and the mornings should be glassy. We might see a more onshore everywhere flow in the afternoons, but the mornings should always have a glassy option on at least one of the sides of Rincon. Wednesday looks like the scheduled arrival date for the next distinguishable pulse and we could easily see some overhead sets again with glassy conditions for the west facing spots. That pulse should linger through the weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some long period swell creep in the mix as well from the far north storm, but none of the models are biting on that scenario yet – too much weather closer to the island. Have fun, stay safe, and show respect in the water.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.