Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – May 2, 2016

Semi-Active weather pattern should keep background swell coming, but nothing major.

The forecast is looking like the surf will stay small to minimal for this week and weekend. Nothing major is forecast to show up on the beaches here in Rincon. However, the north coast of the island should be decent with some waist to chest high surf and glassy conditions in the mornings. The winds are looking to stay light this entire time. Rincon will most likely be surf lesson dream waves all week with little knee high peelers and occasionally bigger longboard lines.

Hope in the distance: Next week.

The weather is too active to count on a flat spell lasting more than a week and a half. Which makes me inclined to believe what a lot of the models are starting to show for the 9th and 10th (next Monday/Tuesday). We should see some chest high glassy waves on those days. I’ll try and update again mid-week to see if it’s coming together.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.