Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – May 20, 2021

Ffull week of waves in May!

Full week of waves in May!

Yes, it’s hard to believe but we have a full week of waves in May. Some days have been better than others and hitting the tide just right can lead to having a more consistent session. The beginner crowds have been insane! All of the main breaks are full of foam boards flying through the air as beginners nose dive repeatedly all over the place. The vibe is pretty horrible at the main breaks. Here’s the thing though, we have calm winds the first half of the day at just about every spot. If you’re not a beginner on a foam board and want to surf in a less hostile environment do some exploring. The vibe is just so terrible and crowded in the water right now. I’ve never seen crowds like this in May. But hey, at least there’s surf in the summer. Surfing a spot with less than perfect waves but no crowd can be more fun that glassy perfection with heavy crowds yelling at it each other and foam boards flying through the air.

Sunday! Sunday! Sunday!

Early model runs on this weekend are showing potential for a decent sized long period swell to show up on Sunday. The most exposed breaks on the north side of the island could see some overhead sets and glassy conditions early in the morning. A lot depends on what actually happens in the Atlantic over the next few days but we should at least continue to see waist to chest high rideable surf here in Rincon. By the evening, even Rincon could see some overhead sets.

Today

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.