Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – May 22, 2017

Surf long period NE swell mid-week.

We have something to look forward to. The weather is setting up well for this week’s anticipated long period NE swell to actually materialize. The exact arrival is going to be kind of hard to pin down, but I’m guessing Wednesday. Thursday should be decent as well. Rincon should see some chest high surf with glassy conditions. Aguadilla and Isabela should be a foot or two overhead and have glassy conditions in the morning. How long the swell will last depends on how long the swell generating weather system (aka Long Period NE Swell Machine) stays in it’s current geographical area. If it swoops out far and fast we’ll only see a couple of days of swell. If it takes a longer amount of time and amplifies, we could see the swell last into the weekend. There is plenty of secondary weather occurring at the same time, but it won’t really change things for Rincon much. Long story short, get your work done early in the week.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.