Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – May 7, 2015

Something to watch for, but don’t get your hopes up yet.

It’s hot and we’re stuck in a hot high pressure bubble that’s pushing the waves away from us. When the weather does this it can drive a man (or woman) crazy! We do have a low pressure system off the coast of the Eastern United States in a prime wave making spot but don’t get too attached to the hope of swell only to get your heart broken. Most of the models right now just show everything playing out enough to get some NE swell pointed at Puerto Rico by next week. Even if this thing does develop it’s moving away from us so we would need some serious wind field development on the west side of the system. The current forecast keeps Rincon small and mushy, but the north side of the island should be head high and have light winds in the morning. This is kind of the ideal setup and conditions for up there – light winds and a steady flow of NE swell. 90% of the time I don’t make the drive up there because the wind will turn it to a washing machine by the time I would get there. The window for glassy conditions should have a couple more hours on it for the coming week.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.