Yes there is a Tropical Storm. No we won’t get surf from it.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but the storm is moving away from us and not large enough nor far enough away from the states into the Atlantic to make any considerable tropical swell. We might get some waist high glassy NW lines creeping in over the weekend at some point, but there won’t be anything major. At least we’re seeing some tropical action early.
Long period NE swell is the real story.
The north side of Puerto Rico should be going off every morning this coming week with a beautiful long period NE swell. It might start to fill in tomorrow. The winds aren’t forecast to be too strong in the mornings which should make for glassy and head high conditions several days in a row. The angle is just not right for Rincon. We might continue to see some knee to waist high days at the spots closest to the tip of Rincon, but it will be mushy and crowded. explore the countless possibilities of the northern coast of Puerto Rico if you want to surf good waves with not a lot of people. It can be like a vacation while living in the land of vacation.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.