This week is going to get windy – sloppy surf on the way.
The size of this week’s swell event will be large, the period however will be short and the form will most likely be a bit on the nasty side. Protected spots will be the key, but shorter period swell doesn’t always wrap too well into the nooks and crannies. I think with the amount of size that is currently forecast should still be enough to get a few choice tucked away spots working. The current is going to be strong at a lot of spots so be careful out there.
The weekend swell should be decent.
The winds should turn more easterly while the longer period swell fills in for the weekend. We should still see surf in the head high or bigger range so this weekend is looking pretty fun now. The latest model runs are making Saturday through Monday look really enticing. We could see some surf in the 2-4ft overhead range and perfect conditions. Bear in mind that this is a few days out and anything can change for the worse between now and then. As of right now however, this weekend is looking like it will go off!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.