Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Oct 1, 2020

The ocean takes a little rest – small surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

The last swell event was just incredible! The ocean seems to be taking a break for a while. The start of October seems a bit on the small to flat side. However, keep an eye out for early fronts. An early dip in the jet stream over the states has pushed some cooler air down to the mid-west this week. If we see any break in the solid high pressure over the Atlantic we might see a decent front pull off the states in about a week. Granted, looking for an early front can often lead to unfulfilled expectations. Don’t get your hopes too far up. As it is, the past year’s season saw most fronts going up to Canada before touching the Ocean almost completely avoiding our swell window. I really, really don’t want that happening again. In the meantime, we stay flat for about a week and should see plenty of days with decent fishing and diving.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.