My arms are dead, but it’s not over yet
This week has been raging! So many days with good waves and several options for spots. The crowds have been light at most of the spots and there has been plenty of waves. Looks like Saturday will be the last of the head high days with some bigger sets on occasion. Sunday will probably be waist to chest high with some head high sets still left in there. We should stay waist to chest high through early next week as a new NE swell fills in on Monday and Tuesday. So basically still plenty of waves out in the Atlantic. After staying flat for so long, this feels great! I am happy again. Hurricane Gonzalo has been a wonderful swell event for surfing Puerto Rico.
In the long range, the GFS is trending on a decent cold-front to dip out off the states towards the end of the month. That will be another solid swell event. I’ve been sweating my brains out all summer waiting for this! Hopefully we’ll see some cooler temps and continue to get good waves.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.