Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Oct 14, 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo is kind of a big deal…

Hurricane Gonzalo just reached Category 3 strength making him a major hurricane. He’s forecast to continue to strengthen into a Category 4 Hurricane tomorrow. He’s very well put together and is feasting on all the heat stored up down here. There’s also a considerably large cold-front sweeping across the Eastern US. Between the two we should have plenty of surf for a week or longer. Tomorrow and Thursday should be the biggest. With hard south winds, several hundreds of miles of Puerto Rico coastline should be firing. Spread out and don’t fight with each other. If Hurricane Gonzalo keeps his current forecast path, he’ll be his strongest right in our swell window.

Rincon: We should be head high plus tomorrow with glassy conditions on the North side of Rincon. With the storm being as close as it is, we might see some doubled-up conditions. Thursday will probably have the best form since the weird double-up should have got cleaned out by then. Friday will drop off a little bit to probably waist to chest high again and keep that size through the weekend.

Isabela/Aguadilla: As long as the spot doesn’t face west, just about everywhere should be raging tomorrow. Several spots might be maxed out though and suffer from the double-up issue tomorrow as well. Thursday will be cleaner and still overhead. You’ll stay chest to head high through next week. The winds will eventually go back to East into the weekend and beyond, so enjoy the next two days and the offshores.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.