Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Oct 12, 2014

The Tropics Double Down as Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forms Today

All of this heat has to go somewhere. This summer has been brutally hot. My house is 91 degrees inside until 2am in the morning when it finally makes a quick drop down to more comfortable temps. This summer has been extremely hot and stagnant. This October has been extremely hot and stagnant. When the wind shear finally formed a bubble of weakness, it seems like tropical waves were ready to feed off all that heat! They have a banquet of heat! Tropical Storm Fay was happy to feed off that heat and now so is Tropical Storm Gonzalo.

Tropical Storm Fay will interact with a cold-front and go extra-tropical soon. All that commotion in the Northern Atlantic will throw some longer period NE swell at us. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is the double down. At first he will just serve to keep the winds offshore for North facing beaches, but he’s also forecast to explode just North of Puerto Rico and eventually be a wave-maker for the island as well. Hopefully he will give us some rain and cloud coverage as well. We could use the cool down.

Rincon: Look for the surf to remain waist high for the next couple of days building into Chest to Head High swell for Wednesday. After that, we could see waist to chest high surf persist into the weekend depending on how strong Gonzalo gets.

Isabela/Aguadilla: You should continue to stay chest high and build to a few feet overhead by mid-week. The Easterly movement of the storm on approach will give you the brunt of the early swell. After that, if the swell is predominately NE you will stay chest to head high through next weekend.

Patillas: You’re going to get rocked, but you should be going off as the storm approaches from now until Tuesday.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.