Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Oct 9, 2014

Surprise! The Tropics Turn on in October

Whether or not this giant disturbance becomes a hurricane or not is kind of irrelevant. Unless it completely disintigrates it will make surf for Puerto Rico. The North coast of the island will get the brunt of the swell due to the angle and movement of the weather system. But it looks like Rincon will get enough of a wrap-around to stay fun all week into the weekend. I can’t believe that this giant beast chugged along through insane wind shear across the Atlantic only to park itself in our swell window which will actually be a considerably lighter shear environment for the storm.

Rincon: Expect waist to chest high NE swell and ENE wrap-around swell to come in from now through the weekend. Some pulses will be bigger as the weather system gets closer. Perfect longboard conditions will persist and some shortboard spots could be working as long as the wind plays nice. The winds are supposed to be pretty light for us pretty much the whole swell event.

Isabela/Aguadilla: You will be going off with plenty of head high surf at the usual prime spots. Some days will see some sets in the 2-4ft overhead range. The winds will be light, but they’re not currently forecast to blow hard South so you might have to look for wind blockage to get glassy conditions. You should have fun surf through the weekend into early next week.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.