More Surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.
What you’re looking at above is some beautiful waves in the making. We should have a fun swell from a combination of weather systems including a surface low right under Bermuda. The winds of a cold-front pulling off the US East Coast, the tropical surface low, and a far north winter storm are pushing a fair bit energy of the North Atlantic our way. This will mean a decent 3-4 day swell event starting Tuesday. Expect surf lesson waves on Monday, chest to head high surf on Tuesday, 2ft overhead with bigger sets on Wednesday, chest to head high on Thursday, and waist to chest high on Friday. Any further and favorable development of the weather during the week has the potential to prolong this swell event into the weekend so keep checking back for new developments. Now that the ocean is finally doing something to make some surf my, forecast and report updates will be more consistent.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.