Hurricane Epsilon dumps solid surf at Rincon, Puerto Rico.
Hurricane Epsilon surprised everyone yesterday by turning into a large category 3 hurricane. Yes, we have a major hurricane with a greek letter for a name at the end of October. This powerful storm should produce some very large swell for today that should linger on through the weekend. The extratropical transition and resulting combination with a cold-front should continue to keep the waves rolling in after the tropical swell fades out. When I saw 11.8ft at 14.3 seconds on the San Juan buoy last night it was clear that this storm was beating all expectations. More exposed parts of the island such as the north coast of Puerto Rico should be all time. The winds will remain south for the next couple of days before going east. So yes, you’re reading this correctly – solid swell and light winds for several days. Followed by more swell with offshore winds for many spots here in Rincon. Be safe and have fun!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.