Small to flat surf until the end of the week.
After high pressure builds in behind a stalled front/trough North of Puerto Rico we will get a push up in waves from a fetch that will setup. While we wait for that to happen we will fade out today with small to flat conditions here in Rincon until Thursday. Thursday, Friday and Saturday should have some decent head high waves with glassy conditions. The winds aren’t forecast to be terribly strong, so the clean morning conditions might last a while into the day. A possible tropical wave might increase the East winds on Sunday and give the North side of the island some waves. The push will have way to much East to make it into Rincon, so the we will probably go back to small to flat conditions for early next week.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.