More surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.
Though nothing on the weather maps jumps out as anything major right now, the weather we have is sufficient to make some smaller scale surf for this week. Look for a bit of a pulse up in the surf tomorrow with some chest high surf at most breaks with bigger sets. After that we’ll have a lot of wind so the resulting swell will be very short period. I expect smaller and mushy conditions are the spots protected enough from the wind to be clean. It should still be surfable though. The weekend has been looking good on the models for the past few runs. Right now they look like the clean-up days after the wind fest. Looking at the next cold front sweeping the states, only a slight shift south in the track of the front and northern jet-stream could mean a major swell event in the long range forecast so that’s what I will be watching for. All in all this past October has been a great month for surfing Puerto Rico and November is looking to be fairly decent as well. I will try to update the forecast more often from here on out.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.