Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Oct 9, 2018

Take a nap, more surf is on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

We will have a little window to rest. The ocean will still have some smaller scale background swell that will be fun for learners and longboarders throughout the week, but the bigger stuff is around the corner for next week. There is a lot of weather going on and how it will affect the surf in PR is all a bit of a ways out on the forecast period. The most notable weather system for surf will be the extratropical form of Hurricane Michael far in the forecast period. Also, if Leslie gets left behind by another front and meanders again in the Atlantic we could get another loop around from her and more waves. The most short term scenario for more surf is one that is not currently picked up on by any of the big dogs yet. It’s that big blob of weather just north of Puerto Rico. The wind shear is dying right where the blob is and the water is super warm. I wouldn’t be surprised to see something unexpected form around the Bahamas if the weather keeps progressing. Among on the speculuation of “possible” swell. Almost every model is throwing a decent head high swell at us by this time next week.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.