Hurricane Swell in November for Rincon, Puerto Rico?
Where Hurricane Oscar is currently sitting has been a very active hurricane hotspot this season. It’s where Hurricane Leslie sat and did a couple loops dumping swell for about 3 weeks straight. Oscar isn’t going to loop around though so we pretty much just get one little pulse that should close-out October with some decent surf. If the forecast track slows down a bit, we could see the swell creep into November. Expect the north coast of the island to see the bulk of the energy from this swell. The angle is very banked. We’ll only see the wrap-around here in Rincon. Generally speaking storms have to cross 65W to reach into Rincon better. However, cold-front action over the next few days should serve to keep some background swell in the mix as the Oscar swell fades out. Expect some chest to head high surf tomorrow with conditions fading down to waist to chest for the remainder of the week with a possible cold-front swell for the start of next (possibly weekend). Have fun.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.