Forget Ian and Julia, 95L is our best chance for Surf!
Yes we have two tropical storms out in the Atlantic right now. Unfortunately they will only get your hopes up and then shatter them along with all of your dreams in life right in your face. Both Tropical Storm Ian and Tropical Storm Julia are taking paths that completely avoid our swell window. It’s as if our swell window is completely off limits. However, 95L doesn’t have to play by the rules. He’s a loner, a rebel, and he knows how to get things done. He’s already going against the grain by forming so close to Africa. I told you, he plays by his own rules. If he can keep a westerly track and intensify along the way, he just might end up in our swell window a week or so from now. If he can break the 65W barrier and go north of 25N, we’ll all be surfing our arms off! If he can’t do all that then continue finding other ways to be productive with your time for the next two weeks.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.