Tropical Storm Julia moves East – this could be a game changer!
She is really close to our NW swell window. If she can muster up some strength during her 5 day walkabout off the coast of the Carolinas we could see some decent swell. She’s not very strong, but she’ll be circling around in a prime spot for NW swell generation. I really hope she can get it together. As long as she stays out to see and gets a bit more organized we could see a NW swell in the next 5 days.
Karl! Good to see you!
This track is what I was hoping for. I hope he sticks to a westerly route headed our way and then moves north as he approaches the islands and strengthens. 65W to 70W and 25N to 30N would be the ideal target. I’m doubling down on Karl (referred to in previous posts as 95L before he became a named storm). Any swell under this scenario is over a week out so there’s plenty of time for this to go completely wrong, but I have faith in this one.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.