Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 20, 2016

Tropical Storm Karl forecast to walk the line.

Everyone who has been keeping up with my forecasts knows how much I believe in Karl. But I don’t like the trend I’m seeing on a lot of the model runs. The models keep putting Karl on a Northerly path into oblivion too early to really give us a shot at surf. The current forecast has him walking the thin line between flatness and solid surf. 65W is that line. If he can make it to that zone, there should be everything he needs to become a major hurricane. Plenty of hot ocean water, moisture, and low shear waits for him right in our swell window. If he can’t get to it, all hope is lost. TD 13 is a waste of time. All I’m going to say about that storm is that it will dissipate far away from us and go down in history as being the most insignificant tropical weather system of all time. Julia just couldn’t get it together. Karl we need you to come through for us!

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.