Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 27, 2016

Plenty of weather, will there be surf?

Plenty of weather – will there be surf?

First look at the North Atlantic tells me we should continue to see small short period surf work its way into Rincon over the next few days. Don’t expect anything major, but the high pressure fetch and the approaching weak Low’s coming of the US should continue to bounce back some background swell towards our island. To be honest, I believe this is more important weather to focus on for immediate surf opportunities. All models are being a bit thrown off though on what we will get from the North by focusing on what they all anticipate will happen from the South. I will talk about that next.

Will 97L become a major hurricane and give us a crazy WSW swell?

Will 97L become a major hurricane and give us a crazy WSW swell?
All of the models have been trending on that scenario from about a week ago. I don’t think it will happen. Take a look at the wind shear map below:
wind shear giving a short window of opportunity of formation.
The wind shear right underneath Puerto Rico is enough to kill any developing storm. 97L has only until the end of the day to take advantage of a low shear environment. Granted, there is plenty of heat down there in it’s path and that might help keep the tropical low alive, but if she can’t get her structure together she won’t really be able to feed on that heat effectively.

If you notice in the wind shear map, everything west of Puerto Rico is all peachy as far as wind shear is concerned. This means that after passing to the south of Puerto Rico, if the storm is still in one piece, we could see some real development. All of the models are then calling for a sharp North Turn. This could be the opportunity for surf to come from this system. We’re talking a long ways out, but I like this scenario if it materializes. I’ll get into more detail as to why in my next forecast update after a few more model runs.

Today

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.