Will Tropical Storm Matthew give Rincon some surf afterall?
So far he seems to be sticking to the script. Though fighting with some heavy shear at the moment, he doesn’t seem to be dying off. In a couple of days he should be in an ideal environment for strengthening. This also means that some surf is possible in the next couple of days and possibly a whole lot more if he keeps his general L-shaped path. The first bit of waves would see is the general ENE wrap-around swell from the passing of the storm. After the storm passes to the west of us a SW kickback swell should start to shoot up the Mona Passage and make all Rincon spots break in reverse. It’s a sight to see. By mid to late next week we could see a steady round of WNW and NW swell for days if the storm does indeed head north. So long story short, we should see some smaller stormy surf in the short term with the possibility of an epic swell event in the long term. I hope it all works out. Also, sorry Jamaica, you might get destroyed.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.