Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 17, 2017

Immanent destruction in Puerto Rico?

Here we go again. Because of the lower starting point of the storm I’m inclined to believe this forecast track. As the storm gets stronger over the next few days the tendency to move northward will be very likely. The kicker is that we will get decent waves from the North Atlantic weather that will steer Jose out, not to mention the swell from his movement and extra-tropical transition. However this same dynamic will put Maria on a collision course with Puerto Rico. We were extremely fortunate that Irma didn’t make direct contact when she passed. I’m not sure we’re going to be so fortunate with this one, but i sure hope so! Nonetheless “I hope it doesn’t hit us” is not a hurricane preparedness plan. Please get ready for the worst and stay safe.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.