Flat and then possible weekend surf in Rincon.
Take a break for the time being. We had a fun little run of swell last week and It was great being in the water again! Unfortunately we’re going to be a bit on the flat side for the next few days. Rincon should remain great for surf lessons and small children at least. The north side of the island should continue to see some chest high surf and clean conditions in the mornings. A surface trough should keep the winds light SE in the mornings before the onshore everywhere winds of the afternoon sea-breeze. The good news is that the remnants of Florence should blend with a decent cold front and we could see a fun cold front swell as early as the weekend. It’s a good sign that we might have an active and early winter season.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.