Surf is on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico!
Florence got big and strong pretty quick. Fortunately, she climbed high enough and is forecast to stay far away from Puerto Rico. She is also forecast to move west of Puerto Rico. The ideal scenario from my previous forecast is playing out. I hope the forecast track sticks. A storm that big right in our swell window but far away from land is ideal. Parts of the island will already have some swell starting tomorrow – namely, the most exposed breaks on the North, East, and Southeast coasts of Puerto Rico. Rincon will have to wait a few days before the angle can reach around and hit our beaches. Saturday might be the first day Rincon sees some action. Next week looks like it will be going off the entire week. Don’t get too comfortable though. There is more tropical action and it’s unknown how it will affect Puerto Rico late next week and next weekend. Make sure you’re prepared.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.