Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 19, 2021

The battle between two weak swells, will there be surf?

Post-Tropical Storm Odette should generate a modest swell over the next couple of days as a post-tropical cyclone. The pressure and wind matches what we see in a weak cold-front swell. A weak cold-front swell normally gives us some chest high surf for a day or two. In addition, some models are calling for a quick dip down which should help form some longer period NE swell. The only problem is that Tropical Storm Peter will be taking a track that competes with swell in the opposing direction. Tropical Storm Peter is also currently forecast to break the 65 west barrier and would otherwise increase the possibilities for surf in Rincon. However, the weak state of the storm and it’s movement away from the island looks like it may just be a nuisance. The interaction between both swells increases the likelihood of showing up to the beach mid-week with unfulfilled hopes and dreams. Real-time buoy data will be more important than model runs on this swell event. I’ll update further as events unfold for a possible swell mid-week into next weekend. We stay on the small side for surf for now.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.