Rincon got skunked on Hurricane Gaston
Other parts of the island got decent swell from Gaston. Rincon had one semi-glorious afternoon and evening. It was better than flat, but nothing spectacular. I’m reminded of why 65W is such an important line to cross. Tropical systems that remain east of that line tend to disappoint. I got all hyped up for nothing. I really thought we’d have some long period swell for most of the week. I hang my head in shame for they were all but wishes and dreams.
How about some surf for next week?
I hope so. An early season coldfront is expected to pull off the states. It’s the front that is currently swooping up Hermine. The combination of both systems is currently causing the models to call for some possible swell for the middle of next week. If it plays out as anticipated, we could see some super fun NW swell. I would be very happy to see this happen.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.