Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 4, 2016

Hermine is right in our swell window – NW swell on the way!

Ok I know I’m kind of the boy who cried wolf at this point and everyone hates me. And yes everyone is generally angry due to extremely hot temps and extreme surf deprivation. My bad call on Gaston couldn’t have come at a worst time. However, 75W to 65W and 40N to 25N is generally the giant box that is the ideal NW swell generation zone. Hermine has a very large wind field and has been sitting right in the box for a few days and is forecast to stay in that general area and strengthen. We SHOULD get some NW during this coming week. The tropical blob that is going to be passing over us will serve to keep the winds offshore but probably won’t make any swell of its own. If anything it will add some wobble into the mix out there in the ocean. Tuesday/Wednesday has consistently been pegged as the the biggest days of NW swell. I’m doubling down on Tuesday. I think Tuesday will be the best day.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.