Weak Troughs Might Become Wave Makers – Possible North Swell
I really hope this happens. The models are now trending on some interesting weather right in our swell window. Some weak low pressure systems that are currently troughing off the Eastern United States might merge late in the week and generate some swell for the late weekend or early Next Week. I was seriously worried by all of the flat model runs this close to October, but I’m finally starting to see some hope on the horizon. We better not get skunked on this! I don’t think I could handle that kind of rejection! Right now it’s not looking too major, but a perfect chest to head high North swell is just what everyone needs right now.
Short Term Wave forecast
Rincon will fade out of Today’s pulse by tomorrow evening. Tomorrow morning will probably have some fun waist high waves for the longboarders. We are looking flat for the rest of the week into the weekend after that.
Keep checking back with us along with the model viewer below to see if the models continue to forecast the mini-swell event or not.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.