Just a little while longer and the flatness will be no more.
By tomorrow morning we should start to see the new swell fill in. The winds are forecast to be light so I’m thinking that just about every surf spot in Rincon should be breaking perfectly in the morning. By the afternoon we will experience a light onshore flow on both sides of Rincon for most of the days this week. The lower latitude spring time Low Pressure System combined with a powerful High Pressure behind will dump fun waves at us from mid-week through the weekend. I’m stoked! Here’s how i see it playing out.
Wednesday: Waist to Chest High glass at all Rincon breaks in the morning with occasionally bigger sets.
Thursday: Chest to Head High glass at all Rincon breaks in the morning with some bigger sets.
Friday: 2-3ft Overhead glassy at all Rincon Breaks in the morning with dead winds most of the day.
Saturday: Chest to Head High glass in the morning with waist to chest high afternoon waves on the west side of Rincon once the winds pick up.
Sunday: Waist to Chest High leftovers at the more exposed breaks.
Monday: Waist High leftovers at the most exposed breaks.
Tuesday: Possible Building swell starting off Waist High and Ending Head High and bumpy.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.